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While I
was finishing my morning post on
brincidofovir’s preliminary efficacy in immune compromised patients with adenoidal infections, the announcement came that Thomas Eric Duncan had succumbed to Ebola Virus Disease
in Dallas earlier this morning.
I’ve been
asked for some feedback because Mr. Duncan was reported to have received the
Chimerix antiviral drug on Saturday afternoon. Adam Feuerstein at TheStreet
just expressed his disgust at the
response of stock traders within
minutes of the announcement of Mr. Duncan’s death, by driving the stock price
of Chimerix down 9% and that of rival Tekmira up 4.7%.
Adam closes his post with
the single word, “Gross.”
One of his commentators,
however, wrote, “The market is reacting to news that brincidofovir failed in
its first high profile test against Ebola, not cheering the death of an
individual treated with it. Suggesting otherwise indicates the authors moral
depravity.”
Well, I’m now compelled to
add my own learned analysis of the trading – and that comment: “Stupid.”
More scientifically, n of 1
data do not support any hypothesis that brincidofovir either helped, hurt, or
did nothing for Mr. Duncan.
Absolutely nothing can be
learned about the effectiveness of brincidofovir from Mr. Duncan’s tragic
death. Zero.
Remember, we don’t even
know if ZMapp “worked” or “failed.” The highly-heralded antibody cocktail was
given to seven patients that included Ebola survivors, Dr. Kent Brantly and
Nancy Writebol. But other “high-profile” recipients, such as Spanish priest,
Father Miguel Pajaraes, also received ZMapp – and died.
In the case of Mr. Duncan,
he didn't receive the drug until 19 days after the day he was most likely
infected with the virus. All non-human primate work done with any of the
experimental treatments from any company have never extended beyond treatment
four days post-infection.
I cannot hypothesize
of any drug that would work if only started 19 days into an Ebola infection.
I even hesitate to turn on
cable TV news right now. No one should be speculating on any aspect of Mr.
Duncan’s case without comprehensive, firsthand knowledge of his medical care.
Say what you will about Mr.
Duncan traveling to the U.S. But the man became infected while helping his
landlord’s pregnant daughter to the hospital, then bringing her home after she
was turned away. She ended up dying of Ebola hours later.
Mr.
Duncan was a man from Liberia who lived, was loved,
and is now dead. Those are the only data of which we are certain.
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